State of the Roadmap · 2026

The machine was already on. Routing is the rest.

An executive walk through Catalytic Computing: what was measured on an 8 GB AMD workstation, what shipped as open-source cascade routing, and what compounds next. Presenter keys: ↓ ↑. Trackpad works.

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[2026-03-22 — BENCH]

Eight gigabytes is the whole argument

The published Vulkan bench on an AMD Radeon Pro WX 7100 records 8 192 MB total and 2 974 MB already gone before any specialist loads — compositor and resident services, not a footnote.

Plan inference from what is left. Spec-sheet VRAM is a marketing number; the JSON is the instrument.

2.97 GB
baseline used · 8 192 MB card
Base: wx7100_vulkan.json · 2026-03-22

[2026-03-22 — CLASSIFIER]

Classify first, spend second

SmolLM2-1.7B Q8 sits hot at ~1.78 GB. Median classification is 90 ms (mean 110, min 78). That is the cost of knowing which specialist is worth a cold load.

On this card, an 8B reasoner crawls at 1.8 tok/s. The 1.2B Q8 specialists hold ~102 tok/s. The routing decision is the product.

90 ms
p50 classify · 78–193 ms envelope
Base: SmolLM2-1.7B Q8 · Vulkan RADV

[FIELD NOTE — MARGINAL COST]

The real comparison isn’t cost per query — it’s whether the machine is already on. Local Model Router for Linux · public README

Against that bench, hosted GPT-4o is tabled at about $10 per 1K queries. The router’s line is $0.00 — electricity the workstation was drawing anyway.

$0
vs ~$10 / 1K · GPT-4o table
Base: cost comparison in the public router README

[2026-04 — MODELCASCADE]

Three tiers, one fail-cheap path

ModelCascade ships LOCAL (Ollama / llama.cpp / vLLM at $0), FAST (hosted small), CAPABLE (frontier). Coverage as published: 74% / +18% / +8%.

Those percentages are the product’s stated split, not a new measurement from this sitting. The cascade is the schematic; the bench JSON remains the metal.

74%
LOCAL published share · +18% FAST
Base: ModelCascade README · waynecolt.com

[LICENSE — MIT]

Your keys. No telemetry line.

The public contract is BYOK and self-host. Paid tiers, if any, add operational tooling — they do not rent the routing decision. Core is MIT.

Data and models are commodity. Routing is intelligence. waynecolt.com · live masthead
MIT
core license · BYOK · no proxy
Base: github.com/wayneColt/modelcascade

[THROUGHPUT — 1.2B Q8]

Polaris has a sweet spot, and it is small

Code specialist TERMINAL-LFM2.5-1.2B Q8: 102.0 tok/s, 12 s cold load. General LFM2.5-1.2B Q8: 101.7 tok/s. The 8B Q4 reasoner is documented as impractical on GCN at 1.8 tok/s.

That is why the cascade exists as a product rather than a bigger local model. Hardware refused the heroic path; the schematic accepted it.

102 t/s
1.2B Q8 · 1.8 t/s at 8B Q4
Base: wx7100_vulkan.json specialists.code

[EQUATION — LIVE SITE]

Intelligence as routing over dependency

waynecolt.com publishes INTELLIGENCE(t) = ROUTING(t) × (1+λ)ⁿ / DEPENDENCY(t). The move is to raise routing quality and session count, not to add another vendor in the denominator.

Compound learning — shadow pairs, distillation, graph memory — is listed as research on the homepage, not as a finished meter in this file.

(1+λ)ⁿ
n = overnight sessions · λ unclaimed here
Base: waynecolt.com equation strip

[OPEN — OPERATOR]

What this deck will not do

It will not backfill a year-over-year percentage that was not measured. It will not treat a homepage round-number as a lab result. Where a figure is published product copy, the card says so.

The arbitrage was always going to close. Route responsibly. ModelCascade · closing line
3
acts · Origin / Crucible / Horizon
Base: this deck’s own structure

Close · continue on the public rails

Read the metal. Then read the product.

Benchmark JSON on GitHub is the origin. ModelCascade is the published cascade. This file is the executive walk between them — one HTML document, no framework.

Catalytic Computing · Wayne Colt · 2026
Keys: ArrowDown / PageDown / Space advance · ArrowUp / PageUp reverse · Home / End
Figures tagged “JSON” are from the 2026-03-22 WX 7100 Vulkan bench. Figures tagged “published” are the live product copy. λ is named, not numbered.